Beneath the Tariffs, a Risk-On Pulse

Bitcoin breaks multi-year resistance—and $HYG says it’s not alone

Author

Christopher Martinez
July 15th, 2025 • ⏱ Reading Time: 5 minutes

🗓️ Upcoming Economic Events

Tuesday, July 15, 8:30 a.m

Core CPI m/m

Core CPI (m/m) measures the monthly change in consumer prices excluding food and energy, serving as a key indicator of underlying inflation trends.

CPI m/m

Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) measures the monthly change in overall consumer prices, reflecting inflation experienced by households across all goods and services.

CPI y/y

Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) measures the percentage change in overall consumer prices compared to the same month a year earlier, indicating annual inflation trends.

Wednesday, July 16, 8:30 a.m

Core PPI m/m

Core PPI (Producer Price Index) m/m measures the monthly change in the prices producers receive for goods and services, excluding food and energy, and serves as a key indicator of underlying wholesale inflation.

PPI m/m

PPI (Producer Price Index) m/m measures the monthly change in the average selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, reflecting overall wholesale inflation.

Thursday, July 17, 8:30 a.m

Core Retail Sales m/m

Core Retail Sales (m/m) measures the monthly change in total retail sales excluding automobiles, providing insight into consumer spending trends without the volatility of auto sales.

Retail Sales m/m

Retail Sales (m/m) measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level, reflecting overall consumer spending and economic health.

Unemployment Claims

Unemployment Claims measure the number of individuals who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, indicating the health of the labor market.

🌐 Tariff Watch

🚨 New Tariffs Announced

  • 🇪🇺 + 🇲🇽 30% Tariffs Incoming: President Trump issued formal warnings to the EU and Mexico: unless trade talks progress, a 30% tariff on their goods will begin August 1.

  • 🔧 Copper Shock: A 50% tariff on imported copper is set to hit August 1, sending U.S. copper prices surging and global supply chains scrambling.

✉️ Policy Delays & Escalations

  • “Liberation Day 2.0” Delayed: Originally set for July 9, a major round of tariffs (25–40%) on 14 countries has been pushed to August 1.

  • Secondary Tariffs on the Horizon: The administration continues to threaten up to 100% tariffs on nations doing business with Russia or importing Venezuelan oil, beginning September.

🌍 Global Reaction

  • EU Holds Fire—for Now: The EU has paused retaliation in hopes of striking a diplomatic solution before U.S. tariffs take effect.

  • 🇧🇷 Brazil Hit Hard: A 50% tariff on Brazilian imports was imposed after legal pressure mounted on former president Bolsonaro. Brazil responded defiantly.

  • 🇨🇦 🇲🇽 Still in Limbo: Canadian and Mexican exports remain under pressure from earlier U.S. trade actions—no resolution in sight.

📉 Market Pulse

  • Investors on Edge: While U.S. equities remain resilient, traders are bracing for tariff-related volatility heading into the July 15 CPI print and Q2 earnings season.

⏱️Why it matters

These sweeping tariff threats are reshaping global trade dynamics. With August 1st as a key inflection point, markets are watching closely.

Expect potential inflationary pressures, sector-specific disruptions (especially metals), and renewed global trade friction.

📈 Bitcoin’s Multi-Year Breakout & a Risk-On Signal from $HYG ( ▲ 0.01% )

🔺Bitcoin Breaks Out After Years of Resistance

Bitcoin has broken above a major multi-year resistance trendline that had capped price action since the 2021 cycle top. The breakout accelerated into Q3 2025, with BTC recently tapping $123,236 before pulling back to retest support near $117K.

⚙️What Drove the Move

  • Renewed spot ETF demand

  • Broader risk appetite returning across global markets

  • These combined to push Bitcoin through long-standing resistance with conviction.

📊 $HYG: The Risk-Asset Bellwether Nears Breakout

While Bitcoin leads the charge, $HYG (High-Yield Corporate Bond ETF)—often seen as a proxy for risk sentiment—is now on the cusp of its own bullish breakout.

🧠 Why It Matters:

  • $HYG tends to move ahead of equities and confirms shifts in macro risk tolerance.

  • It’s pressing up against multi-month horizontal resistance, supported by rising inflows and declining credit spreads.

  • A breakout here would validate the “risk-on” narrative, potentially adding fuel to Bitcoin, equities, and cyclical assets alike.

🔭 What To Watch This Week

BTC: A possible pullback or a continuation to my 150K target

$HYG ( ▲ 0.01% ): A Confirmed breakout would signal broad institutional confidence is still apparent

Macro Triggers: July 15 core CPI and Retail Sales data could add momentum- or shake the trend

Glossary

A0_Financial_Glossary.pdf3.13 KB • PDF File

Did You Know? Japan’s central bank owns over 50% of its country’s ETF market—a level of financial intervention unmatched by any other major economy.

Till next time,

A0 Financial