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Markets Are Soaring, But No One’s Cheering
Welcome to Wall Street’s most reluctant bull run, where skepticism is everywhere... except in price action
Christopher Martinez
July 1st, 2025 • ⏱ Reading Time: 6 minutes
Table of Contents
🗓️ Upcoming Economic Events
Tuesday, July 1, 9:30 a.m
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Due to participate in a panel discussion titled "Policy panel" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, in Sintra. Audience questions expected
Tuesday, July 1, 10:00 a.m
ISM Manufacturing PMI
A leading indicator of economic health, measuring factory activity and overall business conditions in the manufacturing sector.
JOLTS Job Openings
Tracks the number of unfilled jobs, giving insight into labor market tightness and employer demand.
Wednesday, July 2, 8:15 a.m
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Estimates monthly private-sector job growth, often seen as a preview of the official jobs report.
Thursday, July 3, 8:30 a.m
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Measures wage growth, a key signal for inflation and consumer spending trends.
Non-Farm Employment Change
The most watched jobs report—shows total number of new jobs added (excluding farms), indicating the strength of the economy.
Unemployment Rate
Tracks the percentage of the labor force currently without a job but actively seeking work.
Thursday, July 3, 10:00 a.m
ISM Services PMI
Measures activity in the service sector (80% of the U.S. economy), offering a broader look at economic momentum.
🧑⚖️ Jerome Powell’s Testimony
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed Congress—and markets paid close attention. Here’s the breakdown:
🧭 The Fed’s Current Stance
🚫 No rush to cut rates
Powell made it clear: the Fed is staying patient.
👀 “Wait and see” mode
They want to gather more data before moving.
📅 What’s Next
⏳ Rate cuts unlikely before September
The Fed is holding out—at least for a few more months.
💸 Tariffs may push inflation higher
New trade measures could reignite price pressures.
📊 Key data to watch: June CPI & PCE
These inflation reports (due in July) could sway the Fed’s hand.
🧠 Bottom Line: The Fed is playing it safe. If inflation doesn’t cool down soon, rate cuts will stay on pause
📈 The Most Hated Market Rally on Wall Street
Despite analyst frustration, markets keep pushing higher. Here’s what’s happening:
🔺 Markets at Record Highs
📊 S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new all-time highs
😤 Wall Street analysts are skeptical—calling it the most hated rally in years
🤔 Why the Backlash?
📉 Valuations are stretched — P/E ratios are well above historical norms
🐌 Growth is expected to slow — Economic indicators are softening
🔥 Inflation risks are rising — Tariffs and supply shocks are back in focus
📉 Dollar index is weakening — Due to the Mar-a-Lago Accord
💧 But What’s Really Driving It?
💵 Liquidity. Period.
🟢 M2 money supply is expanding — More dollars chasing fewer assets
🌐 Falling dollar = tailwind for stocks, gold, and crypto
🧠 Bottom Line: Fundamentals may look frothy, but liquidity is in control—and markets are riding the wave.
The most important chart in all of crypto
This Bitcoin chart isn’t just a price chart—it’s a map of where crypto might be headed next. Here’s why it’s front and center this cycle:
🔺 Retesting the 10-Year Parabolic Trendline
Bitcoin is now touching the same trendline that ended every major bull market since 2015.
In 2021, we broke below it.
Now in 2025, we’re retesting it from underneath—a massive decision point.
If it breaks up, momentum could drive BTC to $150K+.
💡 Breakout = history in the making. Rejection = short-term top is in.
🌐 Bitcoin Leads the Crypto Market
Every altcoin you care about—ETH, SOL, AVAX—follows BTC’s lead.
If Bitcoin breaks above resistance, it sets the tone for:
🟢 Altcoin rallies
🟢 A new retail wave
🎯Bottom Line
This chart is the key to the next Leg up or down. We’re either on the edge of a breakout that sends BTC to $150K Or facing further downside risk
📚 Word of The Day
Glossary
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Did You Know? the U.S. didn’t just fight COVID with masks and lockdowns—it fought with money. In 2020 alone, the U.S. printed more dollars than in the first two centuries of its existence. That single year accounted for over 20% of all U.S. dollars ever created.
Till next time,